Crossrail · Transport infrastructure
Does actual progress still support the promised date?
The planned December 2018 opening was missed and a multi-year recovery required further funding. The National Audit Office found that schedule pressure, a compressed plan, contractual incentives and the absence of a realistic integrated plan contributed to the delay; contractors later met only about 30% of planned milestones while forecasts assumed stronger productivity.
Schedule realismOperational readinessGovernance
When should the delivery commitment be reset around an evidence-based completion range?
Source: UK National Audit Office, Completing Crossrail
TSB · Digital transformation
Is the organisation genuinely ready to go live?
TSB’s April 2018 migration caused prolonged disruption, data issues, complaints and customer redress. The FCA found an overly ambitious timetable, inadequate planning and testing, weak supplier due diligence, caveated readiness confirmations and insufficient contingency preparation; testing ended only shortly before the go-live decision.
Technical maturityOperational readinessGovernance
Should go-live proceed while material readiness conditions remain incomplete or caveated?
Source: Financial Conduct Authority, Final Notice: TSB Bank plc (2022)
Shell Rotterdam · Strategic investment
Does the value case still hold?
Shell approved an 820,000-tonne-per-year biofuels facility in 2021. It paused construction in July 2024 to address delivery, cost and competitiveness, then stopped the project in 2025 after a commercial and technical reassessment concluded that it would be insufficiently competitive.
Investment-case erosionCost and cashExternal conditions
Continue, redesign, remain paused—or stop while preserving the wider strategic objective?
Source: Shell, Shell to temporarily pause on-site construction of European biofuels facility
TradeLens · Global logistics platform
Is technical success becoming commercial viability?
Maersk and IBM developed what Maersk described as a viable technical solution and industry platform. They nevertheless discontinued TradeLens because full global industry collaboration had not materialised and the platform had not reached the commercial viability needed to continue.
AdoptionEcosystem dependencyInvestment case
Is independent adoption compounding strongly enough to justify further investment?
Source: A.P. Moller–Maersk, Information on the closure of TradeLens
Target Canada · Market expansion
Has the operating model earned the right to scale?
Target entered Canada through a rapid nationwide store rollout, but the launch became associated with inventory, assortment and supply-chain problems. With sales below plan and operating losses mounting, the board reviewed its options and exited Canada less than two years after the first stores opened.
Operational readinessCustomer behaviourBenefits realisation
Should expansion continue—or pause until the first operating cohorts demonstrate viability?
Source: Target Corporation, Target Canada exit Form 8-K
Northvolt · Industrial scale-up
Is production performance supporting the funding case?
Northvolt’s battery scale-up faced interacting production ramp-up, customer-delivery and financing pressures alongside higher capital costs, supply-chain disruption and changing demand. After restructuring efforts and Chapter 11 proceedings, the company filed for bankruptcy in Sweden in March 2025.
Technical maturityFunding and liquidityAdoption
Can the scale-up remain funded on observed production and delivery performance?
Source: Northvolt, Northvolt files for bankruptcy in Sweden
Hertz EV fleet · Business transformation
Is the transformation pace supported by unit economics?
Hertz found that electric-vehicle supply exceeded rental demand, collision and damage costs were higher and residual values fell. The company reduced its EV fleet and recognised substantial depreciation and disposal losses, weakening the economics of the rapid transition.
Customer behaviourBenefits realisationInvestment case
Should the transformation continue at the planned scale and pace?
Source: Hertz Global Holdings, 2024 Form 10-K
Alphabet Loon · Frontier innovation
Has learning created a viable route to scale?
Loon achieved significant technical milestones and launched a commercial service in Kenya, but the route to a sustainable long-term business remained too difficult. Alphabet wound the initiative down while releasing technical learning and transferring parts of its legacy.
Strategic fitCommercial viabilityFunding
Does the evidence support continued investment—or a disciplined stop that preserves learning?
Source: X, The Loon Collection
Snowy 2.0 · Energy infrastructure
Does the revised forecast reflect physical productivity?
Snowy 2.0 was reset from an initial A$5.9 billion final-investment estimate to about A$12 billion with a later completion target. The Australian National Audit Office documented the reset and substantial expenditure, while a further reassessment was announced in 2025.
Schedule realismCost and cashTechnical maturity
What observed production rates support the revised completion and cost forecast?
Source: Australian National Audit Office, Delivery of Snowy 2.0
Walgreens VillageMD · Healthcare expansion
Is the strategic narrative outrunning cohort economics?
Walgreens expanded its VillageMD primary-care footprint, but slower patient-panel growth, lower clinic productivity and reimbursement pressure challenged the model. It slowed expansion, closed about 90 underperforming sites and recorded a multibillion-dollar impairment.
Benefits realisationCustomer behaviourInvestment-case erosion
Should rollout continue before early cohorts demonstrate a credible route to profitability?
Source: Walgreens Boots Alliance, VillageMD goodwill impairment filing
Phoenix payroll · Public digital programme
Are unresolved defects compatible with launch?
Canada’s Phoenix payroll system launched unready and generated widespread underpayments, overpayments and years of remediation. The Auditor General found that essential functions were removed, testing was limited, a pilot was cancelled and known readiness problems were omitted from an undocumented and unreasonable launch decision.
Technical maturityOperational readinessGovernance
Can the programme credibly launch while material defects and readiness gaps remain?
Source: Office of the Auditor General of Canada, Creation and deployment of the Phoenix pay system
Fyra · Rail programme
Is the service ready, not merely the asset delivered?
The international Fyra service was withdrawn shortly after launch and the V250 trains were rejected. A Dutch parliamentary inquiry found serious reliability doubts, acceptance before conditions were met, weak fallback arrangements and incentives that did not align risk with capability.
Technical maturityOperational readinessSupplier dependency
What evidence must be satisfied before commercial service begins or resumes?
Source: Dutch Parliamentary Inquiry Commission, The passenger left in the cold
Boeing Starliner · Aerospace programme
What has materially changed since the previous forecast failed?
Starliner’s 2024 crewed test mission did not return its crew on the spacecraft. NASA’s Inspector General later concluded that schedule overconfidence contributed to unrealistic plans and that technical and programme-management weaknesses persisted across the commercial crew effort.
Technical maturitySchedule realismSafety
Which observed results demonstrate that the revised plan is now achievable?
Source: NASA Office of Inspector General, NASA’s management of its Commercial Crew Program
Flamanville 3 · Nuclear construction
Does cumulative rework still support the approved case?
Flamanville 3 entered operation after very large cost escalation and delay. France’s Cour des comptes reported persistent EPR-sector risks, poor project profitability and an estimated total construction cost of about €23.7 billion including financing, following years of design, quality and delivery-capability problems.
Technical maturitySchedule realismCost and cash
Is further commitment supported by a credible remaining-work and quality basis?
Source: Cour des comptes, EPR sector report (2025)
RBS–ABN AMRO · Acquisition
Does the acquisition thesis remain supportable?
RBS’s acquisition of ABN AMRO contributed to a weakened balance sheet before the bank required government rescue. UK reviews highlighted limited due diligence, weak challenge, dependence on short-term wholesale funding and inadequate analysis of structured-credit exposure; the financial crisis amplified these vulnerabilities.
Investment-case erosionFunding and liquidityGovernance
At what point should the transaction be repriced, restructured or stopped?
Source: UK House of Commons Treasury Committee, Report on the failure of RBS
GM Cruise · Autonomous mobility
Can technical progress coexist with operational trust?
California suspended Cruise’s driverless permits in 2023, citing unsafe operation, unreasonable public risk and misrepresented safety information. GM subsequently ended funding for robotaxi development and redirected the technology, citing the time and resources required to scale the business.
Safety and complianceTechnical maturityStrategic fit
Should deployment pause, narrow or change model while trust and safety evidence recover?
Source: California Department of Motor Vehicles, Statement on Cruise suspension
Google Stadia · Digital platform
Is product capability becoming customer traction?
Google built a functioning cloud-gaming service but said Stadia had not gained the expected user traction. After an earlier decision to close its internal game-development studios and shift strategy, Google shut the consumer service and retained parts of the underlying streaming capability.
AdoptionBenefits realisationStrategic fit
Should the service continue, pivot or preserve only the underlying capability?
Source: Google, A message about Stadia and our long-term streaming strategy
GE–Alstom Power · Acquisition
Are market changes eroding the acquisition thesis?
Power-market conditions deteriorated sharply after GE acquired Alstom’s power assets, and the acquired businesses were integrated into an already troubled segment. GE later impaired roughly $22 billion of Power goodwill and acknowledged the need for more sceptical risk assessment and operating rigour.
Investment-case erosionStrategic fitBenefits realisation
Do integration progress and market evidence still support the original value case?
Source: General Electric, 2017 Annual Report
Microsoft–Nokia devices · Acquisition
Is the acquired position creating strategic advantage?
Microsoft’s phone hardware business underperformed as the competitive market and the company’s strategic direction changed. Continued weakness in the Windows Phone ecosystem led Microsoft to record a $7.5 billion impairment related to the acquired business and announce major restructuring.
AdoptionStrategic fitInvestment-case erosion
Should the integration thesis continue, narrow or be exited as the market changes?
Source: Microsoft, FY2015 Q4 earnings release
Teladoc–Livongo · Digital health acquisition
Are growth and integration validating the price paid?
The Livongo acquisition was priced on strong growth and cross-selling expectations. As market valuations fell, discount rates rose and growth expectations and competitive conditions changed, Teladoc recorded about $9.6 billion of goodwill impairment during 2022.
Benefits realisationInvestment-case erosionCustomer behaviour
Does observed performance still support the acquisition's growth and synergy thesis?
Source: Teladoc Health, First-quarter 2022 results
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